THROUGH THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2025 (JANUARY-MARCH)

  • An 8.8% decline compared to 2024 for the same time period
  • A 15.5% decline compared to 2023 for the same time period

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 THROUGH THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2025 (JANUARY-JUNE)

  • A 17.4% decline compared to 2024 for the same time period (an 8.6% increase in the percent of decline during the second quarter)
  • A 20.7% decline compared to 2023 for the same time period (a 5.2% increase in the percent of decline during the second quarter)

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THROUGH THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2025 (JANUARY-SEPTEMBER)

  • A 21.5% decline compared to 2024 for the same time period (a 4.1% increase in the percent of decline during the third quarter)
  • A 23.1% decline compared to 2023 for the same time period (a 2.4% increase in the percent of decline during the third quarter)

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 THROUGH THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2025 (JANUARY-DECEMBER)

  • A 27.6% decline compared to year 2024 (6.1% increase in the percent of decline during the fourth quarter)
  • A 30.4% decline compared to year 2023 (a 7.3% increase in the percent of decline during the fourth quarter)

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 THROUGH THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2026 (JANUARY-MARCH)

  • A 35.5% decline compared to year 2024 (16.7% increase in the percent of decline during the fourth quarter)
  • A 40.4% decline compared to year 2023 (a 13.8% increase in the percent of decline during the fourth quarter

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When asked what conclusions he draws from the data, Bill Gibbons, head of the Memphis Shelby County Crime Commission responded:

  1. Mayor Young is correct when he points out that the decline in violent crime started before the beginning of the Memphis Safe Task Force. In fact, the largest decline compared to both 2023 and 2024 occurred during the first quarter of 2025 (January-March).
  1. Declines occurred during every quarter of 2025 compared to the two previous years. The smallest percent decline occurred in the third quarter (July-September), which is probably the highest quarter for reported crime.
  1. The fourth quarter of 2025 (when the Memphis Safe Task Force was in place) accounted for the second largest percent decline compared to 2023. However, when comparing 2025 to 2024, the second quarter percent decline outpaced the fourth quarter.
  1. For the entire year of 2025, based on the TBI data, reported violent crime declined 27.6% compared to 2024 and 30.4% compared to 2023, with each quarter contributing to the decline.
 In my mind, some of the positive impacts of the Memphis Safe Task Force are not necessarily reflected in the reported violent crime rate. For example, the surge of state troopers appears to have curtailed traffic violations, specifically reckless/dangerous driving. The assistance of various agencies – in particular, the U.S. Marshals Service – has helped to work down the backlog of outstanding felony arrest warrants (which may in fact impact the number of reported crimes).