“All politics is local” was the oft-repeated maxim of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Tip O’Neill to describe the politics of his day, but these days it’s more like President Donald Trump has taken his reality show to the White House.

Now, politics seems anything but local with the daily federal dominance of the news cycle by Mr. Trump and his acolytes, a dominance driven by traditional media, social media, and partisan messaging that overshadow local concerns and issues.

And yet, it’s a safe bet that there will come a time when the upheaval in federal services and the chainsaw cuts to budgets will result in damage done locally that will inevitably be politically charged.

Three areas where the dramatic impact will be felt here are in nonprofit organizations, personal income from transfer payments, and immigration.

A Direct Hit And Risks

Already, the Shelby County Health Department was notified of an abrupt cut of $2 million in federal funds, leading to the removal of 13 jobs from epidemiologist to community outreach specialists and eliminating the purchase of equipment. 

At risk are 16 National Institutes of Health grants to University of Tennessee Health Science Center totaling $2.9 million terminated, 25 grants to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital totaling $11.4 million with little expectations of receiving the more than $100+ million received in each year since 2020, and University of Memphis has two grants totaling $1.3 million while $100 million in federal grants for research are likely to become a thing of the past.  Forty-two grants for about $38 million have been canceled for the entire University of Tennessee system with the majority coming from the Institute of Agriculture. 

It’s unclear what the impact of federal cuts will have on the City of Memphis budget but the proposed one for FY26 includes $7.2 million for FEMA reimbursement.  The Trump Administration plans to abolish this program of disaster relief.

It’s the lack of interest to identifying the purpose of these programs, evaluating their efficiency, and making strategic decisions about the impact of each funding cuts that makes the actions by the Trump Administration so devastating.  The cuts come without warning, without consultation, and with letters that do little to spell out any problems with the grants.

It is likely things will get worse.    

The Hits to Nonprofits

Many nonprofits are facing a funding cliff.

The uncertainty means they are unsure of the future – do they stay open, do they reduce staffing, and do they reduce or shut down programs?  This is what faces the 345 nonprofit organizations in Shelby County that receive federal grants, according to the Urban Institute.  They total $877,240,464.  Seventy percent of them are at risk of losing federal grants.  Only 8.85 percent of them have an operating surplus without the grants and losing the grant support puts 71 percent of them at risk.   

Federal grants will also affect nonprofits that don’t receive any.  That’s because as government funding is eliminated, the organizations will turn to raising money from philanthropies and private contributors which will make fundraising for everyone more difficult and strained.

With the majority of Memphis and Shelby County nonprofits dedicated to reducing poverty, the Trump cuts are likely to upend many of these efforts, especially since many of them could fall into the Trump Administration’s spurious classifications of DEI programs.

Threats to Income

Meanwhile, in Shelby County, according to EIG (Economic Innovation Group), 19% of the per capita income comes from government transfers – or $10,933 per person.  Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid make up 71% of all transfers in Shelby County.  That’s 6% below the national average. 

Social Security accounts for $3,288; Medicare and Medicaid accounts for $4,483; income maintenance accounts for $2,046, and all others account for $1,117.

The total amount of transfer payments for residents of Shelby County is $10 billion.

Like Shelby County, the percentage of income in Hamilton County (Chattanooga) from government transfers is 19%.  In Knox County (Knoxville), it is16%, and in Davidson County (Nashville), it is 10%.  For the United States, the government transfers account for 18% of total personal income.

Mr. Trump Administration has vowed that Social Security and Medicare are untouchable, but it’s unclear that the U.S. Congress can achieve their goal of trillions of dollars in budget cuts without taking money from Medicaid.  Update: Republicans on House Energy and Commerce Committee released legislation last night that would cut $715 billion from Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act.  The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would cut health care for 8.6 million people. 

Targets On Their Backs

These changes produce risks to people, organizations and governments in Shelby County; however, no one lives with as much stress and sense of foreboding as the tens of thousands who live and work with targets on their backs by ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) that can at any time upend their lives at any time.  Large-scale raids in Nashville began last week. 

The U.S. Census Bureau says that 9% of Shelby residents are Hispanic for a total of 82,948, according to the Washington Post. 

Meanwhile, Shelby County has 16,094 migrants with immigration cases; 28% are from Guatemala.  Other top countries of origin are Honduras and Venezuela.

Guatemalans and Hondurans have been crossing the southern border for many years, fleeing violence, drought, and hunger. Like the Mexican immigrants facing deportation, they are widely distributed across urban and rural areas, with fast-growing communities in Western and Southern U.S. states.

Venezuelans became a top group entering the United States for the first time under the Biden administration, a surge that demonstrates how rapidly migration can change. With Nicolas Maduro’s swearing in as president for the third time in January, the prospects of more of his authoritarian rule could trigger another mass exodus but Trump policies make it extremely difficult to be approved for asylum.

Those who are already here, most of them hard-working residents of Shelby County, spend each day wondering if this will be the day when ICE charges into their lives.  The policies and rhetoric paint all of them as violent criminals and in vilifying and dehumanizing them, they seek to undermine basic constitutional rights like habeas corpus. 

These Trump Administration talking points are definitively contradicted by extensive research showing that immigrants have driven the growth of major cities’ economies.  Nationwide, they contribute $7 trillion to the GDP over 10 years. 

Preparing To Fight Back

When the effects of national policies come local, Speaker O’Neill’s words will be relevant once again.  It becomes a time to mobilize a campaign to fight back and local communities should not underestimate their clout. After all, it’s the local governments that have the credibility with the public.

According to a Pew Research Center report from February, Americans view their local governments much more positively than the federal government – 61% local 23% federal.

There is likely to be a time soon when that positive support is put to the test in opposing the damaging impact from the philosophy and policies of the Trump Administration.

When it comes, we will be reminded again that all politics is indeed local.

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