Demographic data can say a lot about who lives in a city. It can also be an indicator of that city’s finances.
Generally speaking, if a city has a high number of residents who consume more public resources than they contribute to the tax base, there will more likely be potential problems for that city’s fiscal outlook.
Robert Inman, a University of Pennsylvania professor, has conducted research exploring how “bad” demographics act as a risk factor for cities. He’s devised a figure — 35 percent of a city’s population being either elderly or living in poverty — that, if exceeded, could signal significant fiscal problems. It’s based on the assumption that at this level, middle-income residents will pay roughly 20 percent higher taxes for the same services as they would in nearby jurisdictions, leading them to consider moving out of the city.
“Cities are going to feel this kind of demographic pressure on their budgets,” said Inman. “But good economies and good policies can overcome the demographic disadvantage.”
Share in poverty older than 75 years or 18 or younger (selected cities):
59.1% – Camden, New Jersey
55.8% – Flint, Michigan
54.8% – Detroit
51.1% – Cleveland
49.2% – Jackson, Mississippi
48.1% – Buffalo
47.6% – Newark, New Jersey
46.5% – Milwaukee
45.8% – Birmingham
44.7% – Memphis
43.6% – Phoenix
43.3% – Miami
42.9% – Chattanooga
42.6% – Dallas
41.7% – Knoxville
41.4% – St. Louis
41.1% – Baltimore
40.8% – Little Rock
40.7% – New Orleans
39.6% – Chicago
39.5% – Kansas City
39.3% – Louisville/Jefferson County
38.3% – Atlanta
38.0% – Murfreesboro
36.9% – Raleigh
36.7% – Nashville/Davidson
35.1% – Portland, Oregon
34.0% – Austin
29.3% – Seattle
Share Unemployed, Workers Earning Below Poverty Rate (selected cities):
74.4% – Flint
73.5% – Detroit
70.2% – Camden, New Jersey
66.8% – Cleveland
64.3% – Newark, New Jersey
63.8% – Jackson, Mississippi
61.1% – Birmingham
60.1% – Memphis
59.7% – Milwaukee
59.1% – Chattanooga
58.2% – Baltimore
58.1% – Phoenix
56.9% – New Orleans
56.8% – Miami
56.7% – St. Louis
55.6% – Dallas
55.4% – Little Rock
55.3% – Chicago
55.1% – Louisville/Jefferson County
54.8% – Knoxville
53.2% – Kansas City
53.1% – Murfreesboro
52.2% – Atlanta
50.0% – Portland, Oregon
49.8% – Raleigh
49.7% – Nashville/Davidson County
46.3% – Austin
42.1% – Seattle
Source: Governing magazine
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