By Jimmie Covington
A new census estimate that shows a Memphis population loss of 1,106 in the 12 months that ended last July 1 is probably more positive than the actual situation, the pattern of the city’s population change in recent decades indicates.
According to historical data, people have been steadily moving out of the city since 1960. Population gains since that time have resulted from annexations rather than any increase in residents within previous city limits.
The 2000-2010 decade was particularly troublesome in terms of population loss in the city. Despite annexing areas with about 40,000 residents and having a “natural increase” of about another 40,000 as a result of births exceeding deaths during the decade, the city’s population was 3,211 lower in 2010 than in 2000.
It was the first decade at least in recent history in which a significant annexation was not able to offset movement away from the city.
The figures indicate that many people who have left Memphis have also left Shelby County and the remainder of the Memphis metro area.
During 2000-2010, Shelby County overall had a population increase of only 30,172, the lowest countywide increase since the 1870s, the yellow fever decade. The small increase came despite almost a 69,000 birth-death natural increase during the period.
Also, consider this, the countywide Hispanic population rose from 23,364 to 52,092 during the decade, an increase of 28,728, census figures show. At the 52,092 total, the Hispanic population remained a small portion of the county’s 927,644 total population in 2010.
However, most of the county’s overall population gain can be attributed to the Hispanic increase. An increase in Hispanic residents also provided a major boost for the population growth in Nashville and Davidson County.
Since 2010, Memphis’ population did receive a boost from 4,900 residents who came into the city when the annexation of the South Cordova area became effective in 2012.
Although it shows a decline from the previous year, the July 1, 2013, estimate of 653.450 for Memphis does show a 6,561 increase from the city’s 2010 Census count. That would be greater than the annexation increase.
There will be six more annual Census Bureau estimates before the next census count in 2020. The once-a-decade census counts are considered more accurate than the estimates. Whenever a new census is completed, the Census Bureau goes back and adjusts the annual estimates to bring them in line with the census count.
Also, the estimates for previous years often change when the next year’s report is released and additional information is added to the calculations. For example, when the 2012 estimates were released in 2013, the 2012 total for Memphis was 655,153.
However, in this year’s report for 2013, the Memphis estimate for July 1, 2012, is 654,556.
Here are the 2010 Census figures and the July 1, 2013, estimates for cities and towns in Shelby and DeSoto counties:
