Recently released population estimates show things are not looking up for Shelby County and the Memphis metro area in terms of growth.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates–for July 1, 2011–show that more people moved away from the entire eight-county Memphis metro area than moved in during the 15 months since the official 2010 Census was taken on April 1, 2010.
Not surprisingly, more people continued to move out of Shelby County than moved in. That pattern has been going on since sometime in the 1970s.
Not surprisingly, more people continued to move out of Shelby County than moved in. That pattern has been going on since sometime in the 1970s.
However, the 2010 Census figures and birth-death statistics showed that during the 2000-2010 decade more people were attracted to the entire metro area than moved away. The net migration number for the decade was an anemic 18,481 compared to the 178,069 in the high growth Nashville metro area.
However, it was a plus rather than minus figure.
The 2011 estimates show the Memphis metro area with a 1,288 net migration loss in the 15 months since the 2000 Census. There was a gain of 2,341 in international migration but this was more than offset by a net loss of 3,629 in domestic (within the United States) migration.
(In comparison, the Nashville metro area had a 14,699 gain from net migration, including gains of 3,886 from international migration and 10,813 from domestic migration.)
Despite more people moving away than moving in, both the Memphis metro area as a whole and Shelby County continued to grow in population as a result of births exceeding deaths. The last 10-year census to show more people moving to Shelby County than moving away was the 1970 Census.
On July 1, 2011, Shelby County’s population was up 7,444 compared to the 2010 Census count and the metro area was up 9,505, the Census Bureau estimates reflect.
The estimates put Shelby County’s population at 935,088 and the Memphis metro area’s population at 1,325,605.
In developing its annual estimates, the Census Bureau uses births, deaths, administrative records and survey data.
But, but, but, Arlington and Collierville and Olive Branch are so wonderful, this can’t be true.
Umm Olive Branch is located in Desoto County, MS.
Also, to the article: IRS tax return based migration data is the only true measure of population movement in/out of counties. Census data has a margin of error that is sometimes in the thousands. I wish these freelancers would stop jumping anything negative about the city and maybe write some things that could possibly help the city grow.
Umm, I know where Olive Branch is. It’s also part of the Memphis MSA. And the Memphis MSA would be shrinking if not for the birth/death disparity. More poor kids being born to replace wealthier people moving away. Great recipe for long-term success, doncha think? Keep whistling past the graveyard that is Memphis and its burbs.
Apparently SCM needs to offer its readers a refresher course regarding the definition of the Memphis MSA (metropolitan area). A brief synopsis: The Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area- as defined by the Office of Management and Budget- is defined by the following counties and all municipalities and places within those counties: In Tennessee- Shelby, Tipton and Fayette. In Arkansas- Crittenden. In Mississippi- DeSoto, Tunica, Tate and Marshall.
Here is another issue not highlighted in the population analysis: the counties defining the Memphis MSA changed between the 2000 and the 2010 census. The metropolitan area was expanded to include Tate, Tunica and Marshall counties in 2003. If one were to exclude the boost these additional counties provided in the Census data, one arrives at an even more alarming trend. The metropolitan area, as defined by the OMB’s 1999 boundaries, saw an increase in population of only 34,088 people between 2000 and 2010. That equates to a 2.8% increase over the course of a decade. Taking this into account, it is accurate to state that population growth across the entire metropolitan area has essentially stalled.
Urbanut,
I rarely disagree with you. I do, however, have to disagree with your analysis. The inclusion of the new counties is the result of the ever expanding Memphis market. Had the market now grown to incorporate them the new arrivals may well be in one of the old counties. The problems are associated with sprawl in general and the continuing sprawl to include these new counties. We need to be focused on the densification of the area; all of it. Downtown Memphis is probably the only part of the region,previously and continuing urban, which is seeing growth in density. Obvioiusly the “rural” counties are seeing an increase in density.
Anon- Thanks for making the point and I retract my comment. I went back and checked where I found that the 1,205,204 number for the 2000 census DOES include the entirety of Tunica, Marshall and Tate counties even though they were not added to the Memphis MSA until 2003. It also explains why older publications note that the 2000 census defined the Memphis MSA as home to 1.13 million residents.
did these people move away or die?