African-American Out-Migration, Hispanics Fuel Memphis Growth

Numbers from the last four decennial censuses depict the major demographic changes that have been occurring in Memphis and the surrounding area.

The outward movement of white residents has drawn major attention over the decades. However, little attention has been given to numbers that show that in the last decade in particular a significant number of African-American residents have joined the outward movement.

The census population count shows a low growth in Memphis’ black population during 2000-2010 (only about 10,000 compared to almost 62,000 in the 1990s and 30,000 in the 1980s); a major growth in the African-American population in Shelby County outside Memphis and in DeSoto County and a major increase in the numbers of people of other races.

These figures reflect that several thousand more black residents moved out of Memphis than moved in during the decade.

A major movement of African-American residents to the suburbs also has been occurring in other parts of the country.

After the release of the 2010 Census results, Memphis and Shelby County governmental leaders made few public comments about the numbers.

They gave no indication that they made any serious attempt to analyze the numbers to find out what they reveal about population growth or the lack of growth in the area.

Memphis did carry out some annexations during the 1990s and during 2000-2009 which affected the figures but those annexations would not have reduced the numbers of African-Americans in Memphis or increased the numbers in the county outside the city.

Birth-death statistics show that births outnumbered deaths by nearly 69,000 countywide during 2000-2009. Rough calculations indicate that Memphis had about 40,000 more births than deaths among black residents during the decade. The 40,000 would be a “natural increase” in the population. Any number below that signifies more people moving out of the city than moving in.

The census numbers revealed that Shelby County’s overall population rose from 897,472 to 927,644 from 2000 to 2010, an increase of only 30,172. That is far short of the almost 69,000 birth-death natural increase and is the lowest countywide population increase since the 1870s, the yellow fever decade.

A review of the data also shows that during the decade, Shelby’s Hispanic population increased 28,728, according to the census count.

Hispanic residents make up only a small part of Shelby County’s population but does the trend of the last decade mean that the county’s population growth in the foreseeable future is tied to Hispanic increases?

Census Bureau estimates since the 2010 Census show that more people are moving away from the Memphis metro area as a whole than are moving in and that the area’s population is growing only as a result of births exceeding deaths.