Editor’s Note: The Best Times recently published an article by Jimmie Covington, our resident expert on Census data, and we’re publishing it here as well because it speaks to the outmigration from Shelby County. We found it particularly timely since a recent story in The Commercial Appeal said that Shelby County had a net loss to migration of almost 4,700 in the five years ending 2012. Apparently, that article relied on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey report (which carry the statement that its population estimates are not the Bureau’s official estimates). In fact, the official population estimates by the Census Bureau reflects that the loss is much greater than that.
Census Bureau shows higher movement out of Shelby County
The Census Bureau’s official population estimates show a significantly higher loss of Shelby County residents to outward movement than the estimate included in a separate census report.
A total of 8,291 more people moved out of the county than moved in between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2013, including 6,410 in the year ending July 1, 2013, the official estimates reflect.
According to estimates in the American Community Survey, a separate Census Bureau program, Shelby County had a net loss of almost 4,700 residents to migration in the five-year period ending in 2012.
Memphis’ daily newspaper and perhaps some other local media outlets recently reported the ACS estimates, which include the gains and losses among Shelby and other counties, including those in the Memphis metro area.
The official estimates, produced by the bureau’s Population Estimates Program, at this point do not cover a five-year period. And they do not provide any breakdown in the shifts to and from individual counties.
The official estimates appear more consistent with the migration picture that can be calculated for the 2000-2010 decade than the ACS estimates. The decade-long total involves using the decennial census counts in 2000 and 2010 and resident birth and death numbers as reflected by birth and death certificates.
These numbers for Shelby County are: 2000 Census—897,472; 2010 Census—927,644; resident births—146,081; resident deaths—77,129. Births exceeded deaths by 68,952, which is called the “natural increase” in the population.
Taking the 2000 Census count, adding the natural increase and then determining the difference between that total and the 2010 Census number shows whether the county had a net gain or net loss from movement. In this case, the net loss for the decade was 38,780.
It is impossible to come up with an exact figure since all large area censuses involve undercounts. It is not possible to locate and count everyone in a census. If the 2000 and 2010 Censuses had comparable undercounts, the 38,700 migration loss is a highly accurate number. If one of the censuses had a significantly greater undercount than the other one, the calculated migration loss is not as accurate.
The calculations for the decade do not include any estimates. Thus, the 38,700, or an average of 3,870 a year, appears to be a reasonable figure. That would mean that a five-year loss during the decade would probably be between 15,000 and 20,000, which would be significantly higher than the almost 4,700 loss reported in the ACS for the five years ending in 2012.
(The large outward movement during the decade resulted in Shelby County having the smallest population increase—30,172–in any decade since the 1870s, when the area was ravaged by yellow fever. The increase during that decade was only 2,053. A 31,777 increase during 1910-1920 had been the lowest since the 1870s.)
Reports from ACS include a cautionary statement that the population estimates in ACS are not to be considered the Census Bureau’s official estimates.
The statement says: “Although the American Community Survey (ACS) produces population, demographic and housing unit estimates, it is the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the official estimates of the population for the nation, states, counties, cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states and counties.”
(The main purpose of the ACS is to provide annual statistics on such things as incomes, occupations and the type industries people are employed in, education attainment, types of households, housing values and a number of other topics. Until 2000, this data was provided only once every 10 years as part of the decennial census.)
The official estimates reports reflect that Shelby County is experiencing a significant net loss in domestic migration, which would include surrounding counties as well as other parts of the United States. The figures also show the domestic loss is being somewhat offset by international migration to the county.
The latest report shows a net domestic movement loss of 13,178 between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2013. The net international gain during that period was estimated at 4,887. Other census statistics show that Mexico ranks first among foreign countries from which people are moving to Shelby County.
Population count figures from the last four decennial censuses show that population has declined in Memphis and increased in the county outside the city despite Memphis’ annexation of major areas of the county and tens of thousands of residents.
Calculations using census counts and birth-death numbers show that the 1970 Census was the last to show more people moving to Shelby County than moving away.
Overall, the official estimates reflect that more people are moving away from the entire nine-county Memphis metropolitan area than are moving in.
According to the latest report, the area experienced a net movement loss of 9,261 between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2013, which stemmed from a 14,506 net domestic migration loss and a 5,245, net international gain.
