Two recent reports make the compelling point: the problems facing us are regional in nature rather than the problems of Memphis alone.
One was in a report by Brookings Institution that said that the Memphis MSA has the highest crime rate in the U.S. The other report – by U.S. Conference of Mayors – projects that it will take almost five years for our economy to recover as many jobs as it had at its peak employment.
There’s little argument that Memphis, as Mayor AC Wharton says on his campaign website, is “a city in motion,” but it’s pretty clear that upon taking office, he found our community in a really deep hole. It wasn’t enough to quit digging. There had to be a way to fill in the hole.
The Conference of Mayors report pointed out just how brutal the last decade of the Herenton Administration was on our community. It’s hard to find one indicator in the first decade of the 21st century that was positive for our community, but the report underscored that economic indicators were no exception.
Needed: A Four-Year Plan
Forty-eight metro areas, or 13%, face a “lost decade” and are not expected to return to peak employment anytime soon. Fortunately, Memphis is not one of these metropolitan areas; however, the report predicts that it will be the first quarter of 2016 before our community returns to the pre-recession employment peak. Metro unemployment rates are predicted to slowly improve but remain high through 2015.
The “peak” used for the analysis was the second quarter of 2007, which did Memphis a favor since employment growth dragged for the entire decade of 2000-2010. In that decade, the average annual growth rate for the Memphis MSA ranked #246 with a rate of 3.5%. In the two years following the recession, the growth rate was 1.4% and 1.7%, ranking our community #254 in Gross Metro Product growth rate.
No metro area in Tennessee could brag about “hot” economic growth. Nashville ranked #162; Knoxville #167; and Chattanooga #262.
Despite these harsh economic realities, we are still part of the 45th largest metropolitan economies in the U.S. Our $64.6 billion economy is about the same size of the economy for Sudan, Croatia, or Syria. Nashville has the largest metro economy in Tennessee — $80.3 billion.
Crime Is Not Just A City Problem
A few days before the U.S. Conference of Mayors report was issued, Brookings Institution published a report on crime trends in U.S. metros from 1990-2008.
It’s been since 2006 that Memphis – like most major urban metros – has recorded a dramatic drop in crime: 29% in violent crimes and 39.7% in property crimes.
The Brookings report indicates that crime is not just a Memphis problem. The suburbs ranked #3 in violent crime among the largest 100 metros and among cities, Memphis was #1 by a wide margin (it no longer is). Meanwhile, the suburbs ranked #20 in property crimes and Memphis itself was #7.
When cities and suburbs were combined in 2008, the Memphis MSA ranked #1 in violent crimes and #2 in property crimes. The last time we saw national rates, Memphis was no longer in the top 10.
Getting It Right
Between 1990-2008, violent and property crimes dropped significantly across the U.S. with the largest drops in cities, according to Brookings. Violent crimes in cities fell 30% and property crimes fell 46%. In this same time period, the Memphis violent crime rate tripled and the property crime rate was high but essentially flat.
In other words, it seems like the national crime rate drop arrived late to Memphis and its suburbs. It’s tempting to chalk it up to a mayor in those years who said that the Memphis mayor couldn’t do anything about crime and took no serious role in jobs growth and economic development in the last eight years of his terms in office.
But that feels more like a cop-out than reality. With one-dimensional economic development policies, with strategies that focused on cheapness rather than quality, and with policing strategies that lagged behind other cities, Memphis was perfectly designed to be exactly the city that it was.
Hopefully, we’ve learned enough now about successful cities to shake our self-destructive behaviors, and the new sense that we can do better and be more competitive in the future.
Mayors Matter
As we said, we were left with a mighty deep hole at the end of the Herenton era. While he can’t be blamed for our low percentage of people with college degrees and be blamed completely for the out-migration of middle class families, contrary to what the former city mayor often said, mayors do matter with such things.
A mayor sets the tone for a city. A mayor shapes the city’s self-confidence and attitude. A mayor inspires public fortitude and commitment. A mayor defines the vision and sets the context for a communitywide agenda.
That’s what was missing in Memphis for the first decade of the new century. It seems obvious that things are turning around with Mayor Wharton. Hopefully, in time, the most important indicators will turn around as well.
Very good article. There are some disturbing statistics cited but I do think we are heading in the right direction. Like the article said, we’re really trying to dig ourself out of the hole first. And that’s certainly how it feels. But overall, I do believe it’s the right direction.
For us to not be in the 13 percent of metros that may never recover should serve as a first indicator that we as a region, let alone as the core of the region, can still control our future, but it will take strong leadership, not just from the mayors, but from all of our elected and appointed officials, from schools to public safety to government, to right the ship. Some progress has been made, and much more is needed. Despite what many doomsayers will try to say otherwise, all is not as bleak as it seems.
We agree. It’s also why we should understand that the momentum is flowing in the right direction and we need to give the Wharton Administration an adequate amount of time to get things right. It didn’t happen overnight. It won’t be corrected for years. Progress or success rarely comes without a great deal of effort.
Memphis is still in a hole for decades to come..Wharton or no Wharton…the die was cast a long long time ago..he can’t do it alone and he has limited ‘help’ with his so-called vision.
Moreover the perception of the city outside the city needs remediation by some real prood of change, growth and progressism.
That proof is sorely lacking as demonstrated by an article in today’s (Thursday, 23rd) Wall Street Journal in its discussion of the probable sale of a Memphis so-called ‘icon’, MORGAN KEEGAN which describes some of the almost criminality engaged by a few of the ‘leaders’ of the firm.
The author speaks disparagingly about Memphis/TN in that the author says the area has ” FEDEX, ELVIS and MORGAN KEEGAN, AND THAT’S ABOUT IT”.
That should tell you what most of the media outside of the region thinks about the area. Frankly I hear this kind of stuff all the time when outside Memphis…even in Nashville, the capital.
Reading this stuff in the WSJ only demonstrates clearly that Memphis also has a PR problem as well….but alas, it has freekin BBQ and friesschiken, a thinking black mayor, majority black population, and close proximity to Tunica Mississippi for gamblin’, and close to the birthplace of Elvis, also in Mississippi.
Too bad the elites in Memphis can’t figure out that Memphis’ continual close ‘association’ with Mississippi-style and culture is an important component of why Memphis is perceived the way it is, and sorry to say, nothing socio-culturally/economically associated with MISSISSIPPI is perceieved positively outside the region.
Memphis should cease ‘hitching its wagon’ to just about anything ‘Mississippi’, it’s a formula for continuing to dig yourself out of a ‘hole’. Again, most Memphians can’t acknowledge that, and won’t ‘de-couple’ from this disaster of a state called Mississippi and all of the negatives it evokes for leaders, businesses and politicians in the rest of the nation.
Memphis needs to embrace ANY other city in TN, than anything to do with Mississippi.
Being associated with Mississippi-style-culture is a net loser. Mississippi is no prize and represents little or no advantage to Memphis’ image and perception.
What’s even worse it that some so-called Memphis leaders find time to embrace Mississippi, than embrace Nashville, the state’s CAPITAL !
Too bad Memphis is mentioned in the same breath as Mississippi…and that’s an albatross of historic proportion. Losers
You’re slipping shekel, you took longer than usual, but good overall use of all caps this time. grade: C+
btw, it wasn’t “almost” criminality at MK, it was criminality, period. Not that it has anything at all to do with Memphis per se.
Anonymous 1:00: Can we just copy this rant to every post and save you some time each day?
Anonymous, this what that WSJ article really says,
“What have you got in Tennessee? FedEx, Elvis and Morgan Keegan. That’s about it,” said Nancy Bush, a long-time banking analyst and a contributor to research firm SNL Financial.
Where does it say anything about Memphis?
where else is FEDEX, ELVIS or Morgan Keegan associated with ??? Nashville ? Knoxville ? Chatt ? Jackson ?
Bristol ? Savannah ? Dyersburg ?
the inference was clear as a bell to any dispassionate reader
Morgan Keeegan is a Memphis-based company
geeezua
“Morgan Keeegan is a Memphis-based company”
I knew you’d bite. You just can’t help yourself. And Madoff was a New York-based company. It also had Jewish affiliations. So it must say something negative about New York and Jewish people, right? And Enron was a Houston based company, so that must mean something negative about Houston as a city. And Bank of America and all their shenannigans must mean Charlotte is a pit of corruption and slime, right? Shall I go on, or has it become apparent that I just owned your pathetic butt big time? what a sucker you are…geezuah….
again, you, my friend resort into very very typical MEMPHIS visceral ‘name calling’, ‘labeling’, ‘recoil’, and Memphis-twang-resentment to divergent opinion…
just re-read your own retort…it is revealing something narrow about you and most typical narrow Memphians..
you can’t get it in your tight mind, that my opinions here on this topic and others are not directed at you or others….but you can’t see the difference..you are unable to see the difference…..again ‘typical Memphis’, pal…..I am not surprised one bit…you can’t help it, and you like being narrow and typical, you have a lot of company..
this is not some sort of ‘competition’ for the hearts and minds of anyone….but you enjoy your narrowness, your name calling, your weak retort laced with personal attack….no one is attacking you, pal, but you, in Memphis fashion, feel ‘empowered’ to become emotional, visceral, ergo almost irrational
many books have been written about the irrational, and visceral leanings and reactions of southerners of the old south…clearly you remain a bit unreconstructed, pal.
I’ll say this again, Morgan Keegan, Fedex, and Elvis aren’t based anywhere else….the author’s comments does have traction, much to your dislike. It is what it is pal.
Is this weisenheist? Sure does look like it. I sure don’t see Memphis in that article. I see Tennessee. But hey, this the Heist we’re talking about.
the last time I looked, Memphis is in Tennessee, so is fedex – you have to ignore the obvious in order to believe that article was not implying lots about Memphis, given the context of the mention of ELVIS for sure
It’s funny that such a “dispassionate” reader as the one-in-the-same anon and hola above infer Memphis when the quote plainly stated Tennessee. I suppose Anon/sheck/hola believe that the WSJ pays by the letter. The fact that Bush made clear reference to the entire state and not simply to Memphis (especially when it would have been just as easy to say Memphis) and in the process named three “icons” all of which happen to be in Memphis when referring to the state as a whole actually says more about Memphis imagery dominating the state in the view of the outside world. It was obvious that the quote was made by an individual that viewed the state as a single entity and not a collection of cities and regions. They are a banking analyst after all, why would they bother to cloud their mind with more than that? It is routine for individuals I have come into contact with the confuse and interchange imagery between Tennessee’s cities and towns. “From Memphis- FedEx and the Grand Ole Opry”; “Tennessee- ever been to Nashville to see Graceland?”
Of course the most telling part of Anon’s rant was where they mentioned “Jackson, Bristol, Savannah, Dyersburg”. If you think for even a moment that anyone in NYC not from Tennessee has ever heard of Dyersburg or can tell you that Tennessee has its own Jackson you are simply proving your lack of experience in the wider world. Please do not see this a slight towards those communities. I would expect someone from NYC to have the same depth of knowledge regarding Dyersburg as someone from Tennessee sharing similar awareness or Newburgh.